Seismologists on trial in Italy

From Nature News blog:

Italian seismologists to be tried for manslaughter - May 25, 2011

Posted on behalf of Nicola Nosengo

Six Italian seismologists and one government official will be tried for the manslaughter of those who died in an earthquake that struck the city of L'Aquila on 6 April 2009.

The seven are accused of misinforming the population about seismic risk in the days before the earthquakes, indirectly causing the death of the citizens they had reassured. 

If only they had used an underage prostitute, they probably would have been left alone.

Open letter to the President of the Republic of Italy

From the website of the Italian Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Volcanologia:

Two weeks ago in Italy, the L’Aquila Prosecutor’s office indicted scientists, some of them members of the “Commissione Grandi Rischi”(Commission for High Risks), and civil protection officials for manslaughter. The basis for the indictment is that these people did not provide a short-term alarm to the population after a meeting of the Commission held in L’Aquila six days before the Mw 6.3 earthquake that struck that city and the surrounding area.

The allegations against the scientists are completely unfounded. Years of research worldwide have shown that there is currently no scientifically accepted method for short-term earthquake prediction that can reliably be used by Civil Protection authorities for rapid and effective emergency actions.

The international seismological community has long recognized that the best approach to defending populations from catastrophic earthquakes is not through earthquake prediction, but through risk mitigation and the application of appropriate safety measures to prevent buildings from collapsing. In this regard, the development of seismic hazard maps, which provide estimates of the probability of occurrence of predefined values of peak ground motion in a given time period, provide the specifications required by building codes to avoid collapse of buildings and the resulting fatalities

Italy is an earthquake-prone country. An improved seismic hazard map that summarizes decades of research on earthquake occurrence and effects was completed in 2004 (see http://zonesismiche.mi.ingv.it/). It is the result of the work of many scientists, it is considered to be one of the best seismic hazard maps in Europe, and it has been used as a basis for the Italian building code beginning in 2008 (“Norme Tecniche per le Costruzioni”, GU n.29 del 04/02/2008). It should be viewed as the primary  contribution of the Italian earthquake scientists to their Country.

Seismic hazard maps must also be used for conveying to the population the basic concepts of earthquake hazard, awareness, preparedness, and response. Increased consciousness of the earthquake hazard and associated risk should also foster further prevention actions by national and local authorities. Overall, earthquake preparedness and damage prevention in the form of retrofitting are not only possible but mandatory in a country affected for the most by moderate size earthquakes that often result in catastrophes for the society because of the large percentage of seismically unreinforced buildings.

Education, awareness, preparedness and retrofitting are the best tools for mitigating the impact of the catastrophic earthquakes that will inevitably affect Italy in the future.

The scientific community involved in earthquake science urges the Italian government, local authorities and decision makers in general, to be proactive in establishing and carrying out local and national programs to support earthquake preparedness and risk mitigation rather than prosecuting scientists for failing to do something they cannot do yet - predict earthquakes.

The President of the Italian Republic is the head of state of Italy and represents national unity. The president's term of office lasts for seven years. The current President of the Republic is Giorgio Napolitano, elected in 2006.

Scientists May Face Manslaughter Charges After Earthquake

American Geophysical Unon Science Policy Alert 10-18:  22 June 2010

Seven Italian scientists and government officials are under investigation on charges of manslaughter for failure to warn the city of L’Aquila, Italy, before an earthquake hit last year, killing hundreds. The scientists and officials under investigation, who are employees of the National Institute for Geophysics and Volcanology (INGV) and the Civil Protection Department, took part in a meeting of the Major Risks Committee on 31 March 2009. At the meeting, the committee told L’Aquila city officials that “just because a small series of quakes has been observed [in L’Aquila] there is no reason to suggest that the sequence of low-magnitude tremors are a precursor to a major event,” which was deemed “improbable, although not impossible.” However, on 6 April 2009, the city was struck by a Mw 6.3 earthquake that killed 308 people.

The criminal charges against these scientists and officials are unfounded.  Despite decades of scientific research in Italy and in the rest of the world, it is not yet possible to accurately and consistently predict the timing, location, and magnitude of earthquakes before they occur. It is thus incorrect to assume that the L’Aquila earthquake should have been predicted. The charges may also harm international efforts to understand natural disasters and mitigate associated risk, because risk of litigation will discourage scientists and officials from advising their government or even working in the field of seismology and seismic risk assessment.

Science is making critical contributions to the understanding and mitigation of earthquake hazards in Italy and the world. Examples include providing tools such as seismic risk maps to determine areas of greatest vulnerability, improving seismic wave analysis so that we can better understand how the Earth moves during an earthquake, and increasing our capabilities for seismic monitoring and for providing rapid information on earthquake location and severity for early warning systems and first responders.

It is in the best interest of all countries to reduce earthquake vulnerability through awareness, preparation, and mitigation. Local government officials should work with scientists and engineers to prepare for seismic hazards in that region. To truly mitigate earthquake risk, governments must utilize the long-term hazard assessment, post-earthquake Shake Maps, and other tools created by seismologists to educate residents and inform sound infrastructure policy. Communities can increase their earthquake preparedness through implementation of building codes based on these long-term hazard assessments, retrofitting older buildings, improving emergency response, and increasing public awareness of the hazard and individual responsibility during and after these tragic events.

In support of the Italian scientists and officials, the INGV has written an open letter to the President of the Republic of Italy. The letter is open for public signatures and, as of 21 June 2010, has 5,028 signatories from around the world, many of whom are geoscientists. Please sign the letter and pass this information on to your colleagues if you support these seven scientists and officials and their right to conduct best scientific practices without risk of persecution.

L'Aquila and the G8 Summit

NPR, a favorite news source, had a good story this morning on the G8 Summit meeting in Italy and reconstruction following the magnitude 6.3 shock on 6 April. And thanks to audio stories, I know how to actually pronounce L'Aquila. (I guess you could get this from tv news, but I don't watch "news" on tv.)

There are still 65,000 homeless, and 25,000 people living in tents, and serious damage to many cultural treasures. (Photo below from NPR.)


You can read more or listen on NPR.

Perhaps this crisis is what has driven Italian Prime Minister Berlusconi to vice? Well, I'll give him credit for one thing - he hasn't (as far as I know) whined at a press conference about soulmates and higher callings.

Satellite interferogram of L'Aquila earthquake

Click above for larger image

Studying satellite radar data from ESA's Envisat and the Italian Space Agency's COSMO-SkyMed, scientists have begun analysing the movement of Earth during and after the 6.3 earthquake that shook the medieval town of L'Aquila in central Italy on 6 April 2009.

Scientists are studying Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data from these satellites to map surface deformations after the earthquake and the numerous aftershocks that have followed. SAR Interferometry involves combining two or more radar images of the same ground location in such a way that very precise measurements – down to a scale of a few millimetres – can be made of any ground motion taking place between image acquisitions.

The InSAR technique merges data acquired before and after the earthquake to generate 'interferogram' images that appear as rainbow-coloured interference patterns. A complete set of coloured bands, called 'fringes', represents ground movement relative to the spacecraft. The interferogram shows nine fringes surrounding a maximum displacement area located midway between L'Aquila and Fossa, where the ground moved as much as 25 cm (along a line between the satellite's orbital position and the earthquake area).

To ensure all scientists are able to contribute to the analysis of the earthquake, ESA is making its Earth observation dataset collected over the L'Aquila area freely accessible with an innovative fast data download mechanism. The dataset will be continuously updated with the newest Envisat acquisitions.

Text from AAAS EurekAlerts.

Figure from European Space Agency, from where more data are available.

Un terremoto orribile in Italia

You've probably heard about the magnitude 6 earthquake in Italy, with the impact still being tallied.

If you can read Italian (I can, somewhat), you can look at the account and data provided by the Italian National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology, source of the map above.

Photos are available from the BBC.

The Berkeley Seismo Blog linked to on the left also has an account of the tectonic setting.

Here's the record of the waves from the Franklin & Marshall College seismograph: